Scotland is screwed if they gain independence. They'll be off the pound, unable to enter the Eurozone (since they won't have a central bank) and Spain will be fighting them every step of the way towards their inclusion in the European community (to show Catalan how big of a mistake independence would be). Its just going to be political nightmares. The UK has no place to store the nukes held in Scotland (which is why they're being held in Scotland) so I doubt the new Scottish government will be able to keep one of their biggest campaign points.

That and they'll lose much of their savings/corporate tax revenue as well. Currency speculators will have a field day.

I'm getting the picture that the Yes vote is primarily seen from through emotive point of view. Whereas the No vote is predominantly being portrayed as from an economic perspective. Does inclusion into the EU really that important? Norway and Switzerland seem to be getting along without being a part of it. I'm only asking as a non-european who is a hazy on how the EU system works.

^bad grammar sorry.

Norway is getting along just fine because of its massive sovereign wealth fund (one of the world's largest). Switzerland is an established banking haven. Moreover, they have central banks to manage their monetary policy and their independent currencies, whereas Scotland will not have one....at least not until its too late and damage is already done.

Moreover, a number of prominent Scottish companies (Lloyds, RBS, etc) have said they will move their headquarters out of Scotland if the yes vote does win.

Norway is rich because of its oil and because the profit from that oil is being spread to the whole population.
Switzerland profits immensely from the EU. It is not part of it, but because of several treaties, they have a very good access to the european markets, also they have open borders with the EU. Some parties there want to close the borders to stop immigration, but that would lead to a breach of the treaties with the EU, which Switzerland can't afford.
So Switzerland is not a EU member, but it sure is in the EU system.

Also, having been to Catalania, I did not have the feeling of a real Catalan nationality. And except for the Catalans there are no other ethnic minorities seeking independence in the EU, so I don't think that should be too much of a problem.

I have never been to Scotland, so I can't talk about what the people there want, but I hope that they vote yes, just for fun :P

Short the pound and you may profit from your fun.

You shouldn't base your values on how economically profitable they will be.

Money can't buy you happiness, but it's more comfortable crying in a Mercedes ;)

*to cry

also, the Norwegians are wealthy and the happiest people...

What the people want intuitively is definitely a major factor in the voting, but the economic bit is certainly a fair issue to take into consideration. I have to say that Scotland is quite dependent on the UK as a whole when we talk about economic survival so yea ...

But of course I understand that prosperity does not grant you sovereignty or else we might as well pick the most prosperous nation and has it absorb every other country in the world lol

Scottish Voters considering independence form Great Britain remind me of Judge Reinhold in Fast Times at Ridgemont High.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1HqjBc6LhA

His character, Brad Hamilton, a generally cool dude, considers selfish and shortsighted reasons to break up with his girlfriend, even though he really loves her. Moments after practicing his breakup speech, he gets rather harshly canned from his Joe-job, and thinks better of his decisions to dump his high school sweetie, who promptly delivers his previously practiced speech back to him.

This whole Scotland scenario is rather like the chest-thumping threats that Texas makes a few times a year about their unique right to secede. It just sounds like ill-considered would-be nationalist jargon. While I do agree that people should have the right to choose their own sovereignty, this potential decision is unwise. Scots should just go sit down with a single malt whiskey, watch Braveheart, and lament the fact that their international soccer team is crap.

@GOD....you see there are these people called the Basque. I have spent 6 years sharing an office with a Catalan with more than a handful of Spaniards in the building. I will have to disagree with you.

@Ruffhaus...."...the chest-thumping threats that Texas makes a few times a year about their unique right to secede." Please provide examples of Texas on an official level equivalent to the SNP or the Catalan political establishment making threats of secession multiple times per year over a sustained period, and that being a more persistent pattern of behavior than say random people in New York flippantly saying they will move to Canada if not given the political outcomes that they wish from a system's, the democratic nature of which they clearly do not value.

@everyone....Am I alone ion being struck by the inability of anyone on the "No" side to make any sort of positive case for British-ness? I have only heard negative arguments and all couched in soulless economic bullshit (I say that as an economist). Apparently, from Anne through the Hanoverians up through the birth of true Parliamentarianism, there exists nothing to be proud of in British identity. No accomplishments other than being bombed by Hitler. If the contest is at it seems from afar (a nullity vs. a something), I have to say my money would be on "the something" over "the nothing".

My real question is why wouldn't the Tories want Scotland to leave. After a few months of bad poll numbers, the electoral math would become pretty obvious as subtracting 59 seats from the House of Common, of which they hold only 1, suddenly weakens Labour perhaps fatally. Labour has worked to undermine the "One Nation" concept to win political victories over "One Nation Conservatism" but they have birthed particularist opponents all along the Celtic Fringe. Labour is unelectable in Ulster and would surely see erosion in Wales after a Scottish secession. The Tories lose little and would probably see the English core turn more hostile towards Labour as the handmaiden of secession. It is rather like the Popular Party giving the Socialist a licence to behave irresponsibly in Spain relative to the Catalans and the Basque. Having the country ripped apart in such a way that the Socialists lose massive blocs of loyal voters and are self-evidently to blame for the trauma should be an PP politician's dream come true.

Well maybe the PP politician's dream is to live in a united UK? ;)

I guess a big question that hasn't really been asked is: why it is that this referendum is being allowed to occur in the first place? Who does it benefit?

It happens because the UK constitution allows it and some weirdos thought: let's do it!

"Who does it benefit?"
Both sides as it ends political criticism as having not discussed or allowed a decision to be made on the issue.

Yes, gopher, you are alone. Your entire post was nonsense.

Secede or not, i personally think its not something that should be decided by a simple majority. As we have seen the mood to vote Yes or No can swing depending on the daily mood. A fundamental change of status, as independence is, should be backed by a solid majority and not them mood in the moment putting the cross on the sheet of paper. Most countries in europe have for changes on the constitutional levelthe requirement to deliver a 2/3 (at times 3/4) majority of the votes, which in my opinion would be appropriate in this case, too.

Gopher, are you really surprised when people always disagree with you? Your arguments are inane, and ironically lacking the same substance that you decry the lack of. You write volumes of text without actually saying anything. And this after ignoring the fact that this is an economic debate in the UK rather than a political one, where the leaders of all major political parties oppose the secession. Yet you continue to make it a 'Tory issue' even though it clearly is not.

If you want to play strawman semantics an pick at my Texas analogy go ahead. I did not suggest it was identical. I said it was like that, and I'll clarify it by saying that it's ill-conceived, pig-headed, and base in ignorant political awareness and historical grievance rather than what's best for the present. The same situation is true in Spain, and the reality is that if this occurs and sets a precedent for nation dissolution and division, it's going to have far larger global implications, and possibly numerous civil wars.

Tassa, these issue are not as simple as putting things up for a referendum vote where the majority carries a decision to dissolve a national bond upon a whim. The issues faced are far more complex. Naturally your post was nonsense too as you take two completely diametrical opposed opinions. The daily mood could be to secede from the UK and merge with Norway, or Russia, only to be considered asine just months later. Advocating a simple majority decision for the state and structure of a nation is almost as absurd as anything you've ever said here, which would truly be an achievement.

Well as a half-Russian I advocate the Scots to consider that merging thing ;)

Myself, I think they will vote to stay part of the UK.
Several reasons, first, the last pole (I did not check anything yet today) had a 4% edge to the no vote. Also, those who are more likely to vote yes are the more vocal group and that is what we HEAR more, those who are simply quiet and say little would prefer to stay. They are not part of polls preferring to say nothing. Lastly, the economic uncertainty of secession will hit people harder and maybe even some who think yes will suddenly get a bit scared to take that chance at the last moment.

It should be close but I'm going to guess No wins by maybe 5% or so?

did you read what i wrote, ruff? i know you constantly challenged to read carefully, even more so when confronted with rather unconventional orthography. one of the reasons we never get along. i bet some people find it cute, though.
actually i am advocating the 2/3 or 3/4 majority for such a vote - if there has to be one. Of course, there is a lot to consider when it comes to questions of independence, but the scots are beyond that - the referendum takes place, like it or not. and its ridiculous that in theory the fate of scotland could be decided by a majority margin of one person. If, say, 75% voted for independence and the whole thing went awry, noone could blame bad luck on voting day.

@Tom - "those who are simply quiet and say little would prefer to stay". Unsupported conjecture and assumption. You don't know this and polls, when properly done, aren't influenced by this.

of course it is unsupported conjecture! Note it was my OPINION, what I find to be mostly true. I have been called MANY times to take part in political surveys (as have my wife and several friends) all are conservative and all of us refuse to take part in such polls while I have a couple liberal buddies who take part in every poll possible. I don't care about your "if done properly" nonsense, it's my opinion and I clearly stated such, I stand by that! Once again you take what was said and try as you may turn it into some sort of argument. Please read what was said and stop trying to be an ass, it would be so much nicer to be civil.

and several years ago exit polls in Florida showed Al Gore had defeated George Bush. Problem was, they were wrong due in most part to exactly what I am stating here. Conservative types tend to say less that the liberal types. Not a "rule" and blowhards like Rush Limbaugh are quite vocal, and liberals are allowed to have meek people as well. But on the average, I find this to be true, enough so to "slightly" affect such results.

I think tassa brings up a legitimate point. Why is a simple majority all that's needed to secede from the UK? In the US you usually need 2/3 to 3/4 of the vote to pass anything important (Constitutional amendment, Supreme Court Justice, etc).

@Ruffhaus....you are largely making my point. If "Yes" wins it will be because the English could only mobilize arguments based on understanding it as an economic issue when the Scots were deciding a political and cultural issue. People who can only make economic arguments in the face of their "nation" being dissolved are unlikely to care enough to fight Civil Wars. If the defenders of the UK can only argue for it as a Market-State, then they are offering a rhetorical nullity is opposition to the spiritual ties that bind human being together. Tribalism will beat sterile, atomized alienation every time. If the people in charge have that little understanding of what makes real human beings tick, then they deserve to lose. The barbaric, working class nationalism of Germany summoned forth by Hitler was not defeated by Communism or Liberal Democracy. It was driven back by an analogous barbaric, working class nationalism in Russia and Britain. An officially atheistic and anti-nationalist regime under Stalin paraded the relics of Our Lady of Kazan through the streets of Moscow as the Nazis advanced and evoked Pan-Slavic chauvinism and Mother Russia even more fervently than had the Czars in 1812.

You seem to frequently make universal statements and when asked to provide any actual examples of the phenomena you change the subject and make ad hominem attacks. I did not challenge your point as being imperfect. I pointed out that it was non-existent. You spoke of a pattern and when asked to produce even two data points you could not.

Also how can one "continue" to make anything anything the first time something is mentioned? I will respond "semantically" by asking you to produce the pattern of my previously making this issue a Tory issue to so constitute my continuation of anything.

"Once again you take what was said and try as you may turn it into some sort of argument"

Interesting... I hardly ever post on here. But that said, it depends on how the polling was conducts. Random polling on the street via geographically diverse locations is more reliable than phone polling for instance.

http://www.vdiplomacy.com/board.php?gameID=20733